Since I coined the term “Outcomes Era” in November 2024, it’s drawn both fervent support and sharp criticism. Companies like Viant, tvScientific, Permutive and Chalice have adopted it.
Industry figures such as Terry Kawaja have used it to frame the ad tech moment. Others, however, argue the Outcomes Era is already fading.
But the evidence suggests the opposite. The Outcomes Era isn’t receding; it’s accelerating.
Clear signals
In December, Pinterest acquired tvScientific, the performance TV company best known for bringing outcomes-based buying to TV through its Guaranteed Outcomes product. It was one of the most significant ad tech acquisitions in years, with a nearly $20B Silicon Valley search platform betting on independent ad tech. Pinterest was explicit about why: “tvScientific’s outcome-based CTV platform will be integrated directly into Pinterest’s performance products, including its automation and AI-powered advertising suite, Pinterest Performance+.”
Performance+ is part of a broader pattern. The platforms that capture the majority of global ad spend – Google, Meta, Amazon, Pinterest – are all converging on an automated, AI-driven advertising model where marketers declare a desired outcome and the platform optimizes toward it.
These products have drawn criticism, particularly around opacity. But the market signal is clear. This month, Reddit launched its own AI-driven performance product, Max Campaigns. While Reddit emphasized greater transparency, it also highlighted that early testers are seeing 17% lower CPA and 27% more conversions.
As Eric Seufert has noted, Reddit’s caution around loudly selling “outcomes” isn’t philosophical; it’s structural. With a smaller ad business than its peers, Reddit faces what Seufert calls “small platform syndrome.” Reddit would probably double down on outcomes if it could, but the dynamics of its platform prevent it from doing so. The implication is that the ability to sell outcomes increasingly determines who wins and who doesn’t.
That dynamic is precisely what Mark Zuckerberg has described as the future of advertising – a world where advertisers declare a business goal, connect a payment method and let AI do the rest. The closer a platform gets to that model, the stronger its ad business becomes.
And that model is now moving onto the open internet. Independent ad tech companies are adopting it to compete directly with the walled gardens. This month, Viant launched Outcomes, a clear response to Performance Max and Advantage+, but with an emphasis on transparency.
So what does this tell us?
- The Outcomes Era is alive and well. Outcomes are now the dominant paradigm in digital advertising. Acquisitions, product launches and RFPs are increasingly decided by who can best optimize for outcomes.
- The Outcomes Era has nuances. Transparency and verification matter. Quality isn’t an alternative to outcomes; it’s an input. Outcomes are the objective. Quality creative, inventory and targeting are required to achieve them.
- This matters because it determines who wins. If you’re building or selling ad tech, you need to understand what buyers respond to. Today, that’s outcomes-based products. You won’t win deals or exits by making arguments that only resonate inside the ad tech echo chamber. Zuckerberg gets that. Ad tech founders should, too.
The Outcomes Era isn’t over. We’re all living in it.
Disclosure: Viant, tvScientific and Permutive are Sharp Pen clients.
“Data-Driven Thinking” is written by members of the media community and contains fresh ideas on the digital revolution in media.
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