Home Daily News Roundup Above The Influence; Advertising’s Uncertainty Principle

Above The Influence; Advertising’s Uncertainty Principle

SHARE:

Big Tech’s Burn Book 

Influencers and content creators are still feeling the sting as social platforms integrate AI into their advertising products. 

For instance, Instagram implemented a feature called “Shop the Look” that tags and sells products from content creators’ posts. Which sounds well and good. Except it does so without the creator’s permission and without any form of compensation. TikTok and Pinterest implemented similar features.

Julia Berolzheimer, a social creator, tells Business Insider that Instagram’s superimposing of shopping links felt like stealing. A Meta spokesperson says the feature was part of a limited test and the company receives no commission either. But then who does?

Other features, like Meta’s Influencer AI chatbots and TikTok’s AI avatar tools, which let fans interact with simulated versions of creators, have also caused a tizzy for influencers as AI creeps further into their creative workflow and revenue stream. 

“I think the tech is really cool, and I think it’s going to help humans make really beautiful things,” says Patreon CEO Jack Conte. “But that doesn’t give people carte blanche to roll it out in a way that just creates a bloodbath for the world’s creative people.” 

The Certainty Of “Uncertainty”

Ulta Beauty is reducing its growth forecasts as American shoppers pull back on luxe brands and discretionary purchases, The Wall Street Journal reports. 

Except, the Journal also reports that Dollar General, ostensibly the recipient of penny-pinching dollars, is also feeling the pinch from US consumer “uncertainty.”

So the storm clouds are everywhere. 

On Ulta’s earnings report last week, senior analyst Olivia Tong Cheang, from Raymond James & Associates, asked about US consumer sentiment in the most Wall Street investor-y way imaginable: posing a question regarding “new challenges to the consumer environment that we perhaps didn’t have a couple of weeks ago.” (Meaning the war in Iran and closure of key energy and shipping lanes.) 

UIta spent more on marketing last year and planned for a big 2026. But investors want caution. “You’ve obviously done a lot to improve promotional cadence, but it seems like the state of the consumer is evolving,” Cheang said. 

Ulta CFO Christopher DelOrefice defended the marketing budget, which he said has gone up as a share of overall sales because it’s particularly effective. He cited the company’s “supply-chain optimization” and ability to target higher-quality inventory as accretive to the company’s net growth and margin. 

Starting Strong? 

Ad spend is on a strong growth trajectory – as long as the US-Iran war doesn’t end up revising that optimistic forecast.

Madison and Wall’s latest forecast pins expected US advertising growth at 8.1% year over year – an increase from the consultancy’s previous forecast of 6.6% growth. But geopolitical uncertainty related to the war outbreak in Iran may cause “stagflationary potential,” the report reads, which is code for imminent belt-tightening. 

This year, “growth should be front-loaded, followed by gradual deceleration throughout the rest of the year,” the report reads. And the Winter Olympics last month isn’t the only reason for the disparity. The second half of 2026 will see comparatively slower growth because international crises don’t always have immediate impacts on domestic ad budgets, Digiday writes. 

On a more optimistic note, compared to previous global disasters (like the COVID-19 pandemic, to name just one), brands now have more flexibility at their fingertips. As the business and infrastructure of advertising digitizes, brands can be more reactive in pausing, moving or turning off spend as needed.

The report notes that last year’s major growth drivers, particularly social media and commerce media, should continue sustaining ad spend growth this year.

Here’s to remaining optimistic.

But Wait! There’s More!

Target will reduce its prices in an attempt to lure back disenchanted customers. [PR News]

Google’s AI search results love to refer back to Google. [Wired] And the data: Google.com and YouTube are the domains with the most links in Google AI Mode searches, according to a recent study. [SE Ranking]

The new influencer marketing play: Talent agencies are courting the “alternatively influential,” or experts in their fields who carry clout but have a limited social media presence. [WSJ]

A super PAC called Democracy Unmuted is paying influencers $1,500 per negative post about Illinois Congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh. Ironically, the pitch advises using Abughazaleh’s success as an influencer as a criticism. [MS NOW]

Nielsen is pushing back its March Gauge report by a week, after Nielsen revealed to clients that the results would show a downturn in streaming audiences. [Variety]

You’re Hired! 

Jennifer Tang is named SVP of Programmatic at DAX US. [release]

Chrissie Hanson is the new North America media practice CEO and Carat global brand president at Dentsu. [release]

Must Read

Why Critics Say Email-Based IDs Don’t Work For CTV

Many CTV buyers and sellers aren’t convinced email targeting makes sense in a media channel that doesn’t prioritize one-to-one ad personalization. They also worry FAST channels are creating email-based IDs using data from third parties.

How ‘Wrapped’ Insights Become Audience Segments

How does Spotify translate quirky Wrapped labels, like “divorced dad hipster,” into ad audiences? And is AI-generated content safe for brands? Spotify’s Global Head of Ad Product Katie English weighs in.

Pirated Sports Streams Are Warping TV’s Most Important Ratings

Although tides of ad revenue flow based on the ratings of certain tentpole TV events, a new crop of scammers now operate illicit sports livestreaming rings, and there’s almost nothing broadcasters can do about it.

Privacy! Commerce! Connected TV! Read all about it. Subscribe to AdExchanger Newsletters

AI Is Redefining Premium Content – Which May Not Be A Good Thing

At AdExchanger’s Programmatic AI conference, media experts discussed how the rise of AI-generated content is changing the industry’s understanding of “premium” content.

The Big Story Podcast

Prog AI Live: AI’s Slippery Slop

Recorded live in Las Vegas at Prog AI, the AdExchanger team tackles a tricky question: As AI floods the feed with chaotic, addictive content and people engage with it, what does “premium” even mean anymore?

The Programmatic Auction Is Changing In Real Time – Here’s How

Two decades after the first RTB auction, programmatic is more complex than ever – and that’s before you even consider generative AI.