Fearsome Amazons
The Trade Desk has been on a rollercoaster this year – and not the fun kind.
TTD’s stock entered 2025 with shares above $120. After a catastrophic Q4 earnings report in February, shares dropped like a stone to as low as $46 before bouncing into the $70 to $80 range. The company picked up a much-needed attaboy in July when it was promoted to the S&P 500.
In early August, though, investors were unconvinced by TTD CEO Jeff Green’s insistence that Amazon isn’t a competitor, which led to a roughy 30% drop in the company’s shares.
Now, Morgan Stanley is downgrading The Trade Desk, Adweek reports, reducing its price target from $80 to $50 and also cutting its revenue forecasts. In short, Morgan Stanley’s analysts doubt “whether TTD can defend its leadership in CTV against competitors including Amazon,” as they put it in a note to investors.
The Trade Desk is insulated, though. Tons of different industries compete head-on with Amazon – from electronics and apparel to CPG and entertainment – whereas TTD operates in a distinct space.
It’s no wonder many brands are wary of defaulting to Amazon’s DSP.
Big Data Is Watching
On Thursday, Warner Bros. Discovery and Nielsen announced a new multiyear measurement and analytics deal.
Under the partnership, WBD will adopt more of Nielsen’s audience capabilities and continue tapping into Big Data + Panel, Nielsen’s MRC accredited audience measurement product.
The tool incorporates data from cable, satellite, set-top boxes and smart TVs, as well as Nielsen’s existing panel, The Wrap reports. Data partners include Roku, Comcast and DirectTV. Broadcasters and streamers can also contribute their own first-party data to enhance ratings accuracy.
David Porter, WBD’s head of ad sales data, insights and research, said in a statement that Warner’s deal with Nielsen provides “smarter data and solutions to better capture performance and viewership across all screens.”
The NFL is another fan of Nielsen’s Big Data + Panel, but isn’t quite as gung ho as WBD. Working with Nielsen is “a journey,” Paul Ballew, the NFL’s chief data and analytics officer, tells The Wrap.
“We’re going to continue to work with Nielsen,” he says, “and we’re going to continue to work with other partners.”
In other WBD news: Sources say that Paramount Skydance is preparing a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. [CNBC]
Influential Times
Famous celebrity faces have always played a key role in advertising. But now, some of those celebs aren’t human.
The growth of virtual influencers is on the rise this year, Digiday reports, including AI-generated avatars designed to mass produce marketing content.
Brands are – sensibly – not sold on the idea yet.
The number of brands willing to include virtual influencers in their campaigns dropped 26% YOY as of August. Meanwhile, Miquela Sousa, one of the most famed virtual influencers, has been losing roughly 15,000 followers per month over the past year – shrinking her audience by more than 140,000 so far.
Yet 40% of Gen Zers follow a virtual influencer, and one-third claim to have made a purchasing decision due to an AI influencer’s content, according to recent study by social commerce platform Whop.
Still, 60% of marketers say they have no plans to incorporate these influencers into their campaigns.
Georgia Goodwin, chief client officer of influencer marketing agency Digital Voices, tells Digiday that paying AI influencers – especially those owned by large corporations – “doesn’t fit” with its values.
“Our philosophy is democratizing media,” she says, “and putting big media budgets back into the hands of individuals to create a better life for themselves.”
But Wait! There’s More!
The FTC has begun an inquiry into how AI chatbots affect child safety. [New York Times]
Vibe coding can be a cheap and quick solution for tech companies … at least, it would be if it worked better. [404 Media]
Kroger wants to keep prices low as shoppers seek out promotional deals. [WSJ]
How brands are embracing book culture. [Ad Age]
Jimmy Fallon on folding ads into TV, and vice versa. [Adweek]
Here’s today’s AdExchanger.com news round-up… Want it by email? Sign up here.
