Everyone wants to know: Will Google deprecate cookies in 2024?
Currently, the company is doubling down on its commitment, but we all know Google has made similar claims in the past.
Will this time be different? I have a theory that Google sees a window closing and is furiously trying to move forward before it closes.
More testing will hurt the perception of the Privacy Sandbox
Google has recognized that it is unlikely the Privacy Sandbox tools will improve significantly in the short- to mid-term. In that light, the more time the marketplace has to evaluate the Privacy Sandbox – and, particularly, the Topics platform – the worse those platforms will look.
Yes, Google has been testing the Privacy Sandbox for nearly two years. However, in most of the tests conducted thus far, Google has also used third-party cookies in a large swath of the experiment. In other words, we still have very few clear, no-spin-zone comparisons of how the Privacy Sandbox tools work in practice. Google cannot rightly say the Privacy Sandbox will be viable for 2024 without torturing the definition of the word “viable.”
Latency in particular is a time bomb for the Privacy Sandbox. Google stated to the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority that it had “tested 60 sites (randomly selected) with an automation framework to load the sites hundreds of times. In aggregate, the first page load across all sites appeared to incur an additional ~100ms.” Google then claimed the number may be misleading, but questions remain.
For example, how large were the sites tested? Did Google find a difference in latency between large sites and small sites? A difference across various creative types?
The longer the Privacy Sandbox remains in “test” mode, the more pressure there will be on Google to provide answers to those questions. And the more difficult it will be for Google to downplay the issue caused by latency.
As anyone in the programmatic advertising space knows, speed is everything.
Faster ad loads mean more ads fit the MRC viewability metrics. Publishers can charge for those ads as viewable. A 100ms delay in an ad load means fewer ads for which publishers can charge.
Latency affects Google organic search rankings. While Google doesn’t publish the criteria its search algorithm uses, it’s not exactly a secret that additional latency can have a significant impact on search rankings. Latency just might push many publishers outside the threshold that Google uses for its organic search results. Put another way, the additional latency will result in less site traffic. And less site traffic means less ad revenue.
Additional latency means less time for publisher ad partners to process ad auctions. The only alternative for publishers using the Privacy Sandbox tools is to limit the number of bidders. However, the laws of economics mean the fewer bidders, the less revenue for the publisher over time. This is a lose-lose deal.
Why the urgency to deprecate cookies?
Why is Google moving full speed ahead? Competition regulators across at least three continents are closing in. And we’ve all read the more recent news that European Commission is threatening divestiture.
But deprecating cookies resets the entire data-driven advertising marketplace. Regulators can certainly fine Google for prior acts, but maybe this reboot takes a more comprehensive breakup of Alphabet off the table. Also, Google is as well positioned for a post-cookie world as anyone. While cookie depreciation will certainly hurt Google, it will live on.
Won’t the CMA stop Google?
In 2021, Google made binding commitments to the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) that it would not deprecate cookies until it can demonstrate a viable alternative to the marketplace. By making affirmative statements that the Privacy Sandbox tools are ready for prime time and sharing half-baked research to support those statements, Google is attempting to create a narrative that it has lived up to its CMA commitments. On some level, the company is daring the CMA to challenge Google’s claims.
At best, the jury is still out on the Privacy Sandbox. At worst, there’s research that suggests the marketplace – particularly smaller advertisers and publishers – will experience a world of pain.
Does the CMA have the intestinal fortitude to call Google’s bluff? I’m not sure. But Google should show its math in more detail before it pulls the plug on cookies.
“Data-Driven Thinking” is written by members of the media community and contains fresh ideas on the digital revolution in media.
Follow Alan Chapell and AdExchanger on LinkedIn.
For more articles featuring Alan Chapell, click here.
