There are a number of problems in extending the idea of upfront market to digital, Geraci believes – much less programmatic. Perhaps the main argument against is that online generally lacks the scarcity that has brought buyers and sellers to the negotiating table every spring.
"In areas like social media, there's a never-ending supply of ad inventory and content, so the idea of buying in advance when it's just as possible that prices could decline makes the reasons for holding an upfront for online difficult to accept," Geraci said.
The upfront this year, estimated to be about $10 billion, dragged on until late June and was generally flat, Geraci said. The negotiations in 2012 were wrapped up a month earlier. In part, weak economic growth caused difficulty in nailing down commitments.
Part of the reason AOL is staging its programmatic event in the fall is to capitalize on the heavy amount of spot buying that builds in the weeks between the Thanksgiving and Christmas shopping seasons. But if AOL believes that it can capture some of the dollars that tend to float around the TV scatter market, the company may be disappointed.
"The scatter TV market is not shaping up to be that hot," Geraci said. "It looks mildly inflationary at best. Either way, I don't expect a big shift from TV to digital in the fall."
Pivotal Research's Brian Wieser tended to agree with OMD's Geraci about the difficulty in applying the model to programmatic. In a research note, Wieser, formerly of IPG's Magna, said that the TV ad market is largely based on mass and brand awareness and affinity; online is based on performance and programmatic specifically is largely based on audience targeting.
"Few of the conditions which make TV upfronts a 'least-bad' alternative exist on the web, and it's unlikely those conditions will exist until a web publisher develops a must-have property for a segment of competitive brands which is exclusive to that publisher's environment," Wieser wrote.
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