Next week, advertisers will descend on New York City for start-studded presentations about the programmers’ fall offerings. Billions of advertising dollars will be at stake.
But the tariffs will put a damper on the spending and lead buyers to demand lower CPMs and greater flexibility in their terms, according to Emarketer’s projections on 2025 TV upfront spending.
Overall linear TV upfronts spending will decline $2.78 billion to $4 billion, landing somewhere in the $13.4 billion to $14.8 billion range, with the lower end reflecting the heaviest tariffs. On the CTV side, heavy tariffs mean spending will be flat, at $13 billion, while the lightest tariffs will mean spending of more than $14 billion, a billion-dollar increase even in a down market.
To walk us through the biggest takeaways from the report, Emarketer Senior Analyst Ross Benes shares why the TV upfronts are down – and why the billions of dollars in decreases may not be as bad as you think. The uncertainty, on the other hand, is reminiscent of 2020.
“Advertisers are going to want the option to cancel much more of their commitments,” Benes says. “They have the upper hand right now.”
What’s also striking is how much of the TV upfront spending has turned to streaming in recent years. Back in 2021, CTV was one-fifth of total upfront spending. Now, it’s half.
In addition to unpacking tariffs, we report from the Possible conference in Florida, where AdExchanger Senior Editor James Hercher met with ad tech’s glitterati this week. Like Miami’s weather, the mood at the conference was sunny, reflecting an optimism that everything will be all right in the advertising market.
And if linear TV is bearing the brunt of the cuts from the tariffs, it may just be that the digital advertising folks, with their focus on CTV, are insulated the most from cuts in ad spending. But it will take the rest of 2025 to know for sure.
