Home Data-Driven Thinking Are Your Metrics Creating Confirmation Bias?

Are Your Metrics Creating Confirmation Bias?

SHARE:
Elise Stieferman, director of marketing & business strategy at Coegi.

Data-Driven Thinking” is written by members of the media community and contains fresh ideas on the digital revolution in media.

Today’s column is written by Elise Stieferman, director of marketing & business strategy at Coegi.

A marketing campaign is nothing without a strong measurement strategy. Each channel and tactic you are investing in needs to be held accountable to business results. Confirmation bias creeps in when you consider a KPI that is easily manipulated but isn’t a true reflection of business results.

Vanity metrics like CTR for search, engagement rate for social or completion rate for video are convenient substitutes for more legitimate metrics, so it’s important to look at a broader set of data to accurately assess if your efforts are moving the needle. And marketers who fear transparency in reporting do so because they can’t spin the story.

Here are three ways confirmation bias may be hurting your campaigns:

Your insights are based on irrelevant metrics

Beware of building or receiving marketing reports that say everything is working perfectly. While that is what we all want, it isn’t realistic. The telltale signs are when media metrics are thrown in that are irrelevant to the desired business outcome. If your goal is driving sales, but your analysis is focused on click-through rates rather than conversion rates, you can safely assume you’re not meeting your conversion benchmarks.

In this instance, look at period-over-period sales data relative to marketing mix and spend. It’s better to acknowledge where shortcomings are occurring and quickly pivot. In some cases, teams fear repercussions for negative results, worrying that budgets will get cut or trust will be lost. But the best marketing teams have proper leeway to fail forward, learn from the wrong assumptions and make quick adjustments. Don’t let confirmation bias allow issues to bubble underneath your campaign’s surface.

Failure to incorporate third-party metrics

Rarely do media metrics tell the full story of marketing impact. Data outside of your platforms provides unbiased insights into changes in consumer behavior that are either directly tied to – or correlated with – marketing initiatives. Control vs. exposed studies break down marketing impact on full-funnel results by audience, channel, message and more. When fused with media data, this provides the equivalent of a 3D analysis. Media metrics alone are 2D and often lack the dimension needed to inform business decisions.

When studies are not feasible or do not answer your key questions, turn to other tools such as Google trends or social listening technology. These solutions will help you to understand if shifts are occurring as a result of changes in your marketing campaigns.

Reluctance to break the mold

This is the biggest red flag of all. An unwillingness to explore new channels or tactics, vet new partners or adjust an audience strategy are signs of complacency. These marketers are relying on historical confirmation bias and aren’t looking beyond their silos. 

Inevitably, these brands will be surpassed by competitors who shift with consumer demands, allowing data and research to inform action rather than instinct alone.

While it’s important to follow your intuition, it does create an environment where bias is more likely to infiltrate. Put checks and balances in place to welcome diversity of thought, but conduct thorough analysis to allow for the greatest possible success.

Follow Coegi (@Ceogi) and AdExchanger (@adexchanger) on Twitter.

For more articles featuring Elise Stieferman, click here.

Must Read

PubMatic Is All In On Agentic AI

PubMatic says adoption of its AgenticOS, combined with strong CTV and mobile demand, set the stage for double digit growth in the second half of this year.

Comic: Always Be Paddling

The Trade Desk Faces Headwinds As Investors Reconsider The Thesis Of Objective Indie Ad Tech

The Trade Desk, once a Wall Street darling, now faces the challenge of rebuilding goodwill across the investor community and the ad tech industry.

Other Than Buying Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Skydance’s Priority Is Streaming Revenue Growth

While the outcome of Paramount Skydance’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery hangs in the balance, Paramount is laser-focused on driving streaming growth.

Privacy! Commerce! Connected TV! Read all about it. Subscribe to AdExchanger Newsletters

TV Media Buyers Want Outcomes – So Nielsen Is Introducing More Advanced Audiences

On Wednesday, and in time for the upfronts, Nielsen added more than 200 advanced audience segments in Nielsen ONE, its cross-platform analytics dashboard.

Why Dow Jones Prioritizes Direct Deals To Protect Its Audience Value

In pursuit of ad revenue, Dow Jones is betting on a tried-and-true strategy: direct relationships, first‑party audiences and a disciplined approach to using data to enrich ad campaigns.

Comic: Shopper Marketing Data

Infillion Strikes Again, This Time Buying The Retail Purchase Data Company Catalina

Infillion, an ad tech business built on M&A, is back with another acquisition. This time it’s Catalina, a century-old market research and shopper marketing company with roots in physical cash register machines.