Home Content Studio MMM Is The Devil You Know

MMM Is The Devil You Know

SHARE:

Marketing measurement is broken, and everyone knows it. Every week, I talk to marketing leaders who are desperate to quantify the revenue that marketing is incrementally delivering to the business. Many of them have some kind of marketing mix model (MMM) in place, yet still rely almost exclusively on last-touch attribution (LTA) to optimize their marketing investments on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.

What gives?

First off, can we agree that last-touch is an outdated, insufficient way to measure the effectiveness of your marketing if you’re doing anything but paid search? I hear a lot of, “I know we shouldn’t rely on last-touch anymore, but …”

What follows are the most common reasons I hear – as well as my rebuttal.

“MMM is too slow and expensive”

Agreed. MMM used to be painfully slow. But that’s not a technology problem; it’s a people and process problem. If your MMM still takes months, it’s likely because manual handoffs are bogging things down: data prep, ingestion, exploratory analysis, modeling, tuning, interpretation, planning. Each stage requires a different resource, and those roles are tough (and expensive) to staff.

AI has changed the game. With automation across the workflow, MMM can now deliver insights in hours, not quarters. Speed and flexibility are finally within reach, but only if your tools are built to support end-to-end workflows and can scale with your data.

“No one trusts our MMM”

Trust issues with MMM are real—and sadly, often earned. There are horror stories: models tweaked to fit expectations, missing or smoothed-out outcomes, black-box inputs hidden behind buzzwords and diagnostic metrics withheld entirely.

That kind of opacity undermines the entire discipline. Without transparency – clear inputs, accessible diagnostics and traceable outcomes – your measurement will never influence decisions. If you’re not building trust to drive decisions, you’re just building fancy reports to collect dust.

“It’s too hard to change our measurement”

The change management problem is real – and worth solving. We’ve seen firsthand how challenging it is to shift from surface-level metrics to truly incremental insights.

Nearly a decade ago, our own marketing team faced challenges in predicting what outcomes finance should expect from marketing efforts. We were relying on a combination of publisher-reported performance, channel-specific partner metrics and last-touch attribution from our internal analytics.

We had a 1+1 = 4 problem. The sum of the reported results from these fragmented sources didn’t match what finance was measuring.

We knew we had to get to a view of incrementality and that it would not be painless.

Fortunately, we had strong executive backing to pursue more sophisticated measurement, which gave us the foundation to engage in tough but constructive conversations with our media teams and agency partners across channels. By showing side-by-side comparisons of how our measurement would evolve – grounded in two years of rescored historical data – we made clear how our approach to strategy and execution might need to dramatically change.

Some channels (and you can probably guess which) looked amazing through a last-touch lens but faltered when measured for actual incremental impact across the funnel.

Measurement has to drive decision-making

Here’s a crazy idea: If you trust your measurement, let your partners try to game it. That’s how you’ll know it’s working.

Because great measurement isn’t about pretty curves or perfect model fit. It’s about real-world impact. If your results look stellar but nothing changes in business performance, something’s off.

That’s the mindset we push our customers toward: progress over perfection. You don’t need to wait for 99% statistical confidence to act; you just need confidence that your measurement is good enough to learn, improve and iterate. And for that to happen, your culture has to reward curiosity, not punish being wrong. That’s the real unlock for modern marketing teams.

If all of these challenges sound familiar, you’re not alone. But if you’re still relying on last-touch, ask yourself: Is it guiding smart decisions – or just easy ones? Yes, change is hard. But so is wasting millions on marketing you can’t prove worked. In a recent webinar, H&R Block shared why they’re investing in moving beyond last-touch – and how they’re making the shift work.

We’ve worked through these same challenges at Adobe, and it’s why we’ve built our own MMM solution natively on Adobe Experience Platform with automation, transparency and decision-readiness at the core. Marketers need faster answers and more actionable insights, and we believe Adobe Mix Modeler can finally deliver both.

The future belongs to marketers who measure boldly and act accordingly.

Must Read

Inside The Trade Desk’s Pitch For Ventura TV OS

The Trade Desk is muscling its way into the TV operating system business with its Ventura OS – but the real story isn’t the product itself. It’s what TTD’s ambitions reveal about conflicts of interest within the industry and the inherent mismatch between consumer and advertiser needs.

The Big Story Podcast

Mergers And Operating Systems Are Reshaping TV Ads

The broadcast and streaming worlds are being pulled together by a wave of major M&A, from Fox’s $22 billion acquisition of Roku to Paramount’s merger with Warner Bros. Discovery. TV Land, naturally, is watching closely.

artificial intelligence

GAM Launches A Chatbot For Troubleshooting Ad Campaigns

Ask Ad Manger offers instant troubleshooting help when a campaign isn’t delivering as expected, ideally by diagnosing the problem and suggesting how to fix it.

Privacy! Commerce! Connected TV! Read all about it. Subscribe to AdExchanger Newsletters
Comic: S.P. O’Middleman’s

How SPO Helped This Indie Agency Cut Its SSP Partners To Single Digits

Goodway Group has reduced the number of SSPs it works with from about 20 at the end of 2024 to just single digits today.

Comic: The Mobile Freight Train

CloudX Takes A Swing At Black‑Box Mobile UA With Agentic Buying Tools

CloudX, which makes AI infrastructure for app publishers, is expanding from monetization to agentic buying for user acquisition.

The Trade Desk Forms A Travel And Hospitality Media Network

The Trade Desk expanded its relationships with a host of travel, hospitality and mobility-focused commerce media partners, including Uber Advertising, Booking.com, United Airline’s Kinective Media and MARRIOTT MEDIA.