Home Data-Driven Thinking Are Your Metrics Creating Confirmation Bias?

Are Your Metrics Creating Confirmation Bias?

SHARE:
Elise Stieferman, director of marketing & business strategy at Coegi.

Data-Driven Thinking” is written by members of the media community and contains fresh ideas on the digital revolution in media.

Today’s column is written by Elise Stieferman, director of marketing & business strategy at Coegi.

A marketing campaign is nothing without a strong measurement strategy. Each channel and tactic you are investing in needs to be held accountable to business results. Confirmation bias creeps in when you consider a KPI that is easily manipulated but isn’t a true reflection of business results.

Vanity metrics like CTR for search, engagement rate for social or completion rate for video are convenient substitutes for more legitimate metrics, so it’s important to look at a broader set of data to accurately assess if your efforts are moving the needle. And marketers who fear transparency in reporting do so because they can’t spin the story.

Here are three ways confirmation bias may be hurting your campaigns:

Your insights are based on irrelevant metrics

Beware of building or receiving marketing reports that say everything is working perfectly. While that is what we all want, it isn’t realistic. The telltale signs are when media metrics are thrown in that are irrelevant to the desired business outcome. If your goal is driving sales, but your analysis is focused on click-through rates rather than conversion rates, you can safely assume you’re not meeting your conversion benchmarks.

In this instance, look at period-over-period sales data relative to marketing mix and spend. It’s better to acknowledge where shortcomings are occurring and quickly pivot. In some cases, teams fear repercussions for negative results, worrying that budgets will get cut or trust will be lost. But the best marketing teams have proper leeway to fail forward, learn from the wrong assumptions and make quick adjustments. Don’t let confirmation bias allow issues to bubble underneath your campaign’s surface.

Failure to incorporate third-party metrics

Rarely do media metrics tell the full story of marketing impact. Data outside of your platforms provides unbiased insights into changes in consumer behavior that are either directly tied to – or correlated with – marketing initiatives. Control vs. exposed studies break down marketing impact on full-funnel results by audience, channel, message and more. When fused with media data, this provides the equivalent of a 3D analysis. Media metrics alone are 2D and often lack the dimension needed to inform business decisions.

When studies are not feasible or do not answer your key questions, turn to other tools such as Google trends or social listening technology. These solutions will help you to understand if shifts are occurring as a result of changes in your marketing campaigns.

Reluctance to break the mold

This is the biggest red flag of all. An unwillingness to explore new channels or tactics, vet new partners or adjust an audience strategy are signs of complacency. These marketers are relying on historical confirmation bias and aren’t looking beyond their silos. 

Inevitably, these brands will be surpassed by competitors who shift with consumer demands, allowing data and research to inform action rather than instinct alone.

While it’s important to follow your intuition, it does create an environment where bias is more likely to infiltrate. Put checks and balances in place to welcome diversity of thought, but conduct thorough analysis to allow for the greatest possible success.

Follow Coegi (@Ceogi) and AdExchanger (@adexchanger) on Twitter.

For more articles featuring Elise Stieferman, click here.

Must Read

Why Media Mergers And Spin-Offs Don’t Always Keep Their Promises

With media megamergers, acquisitions and spin-offs left and right, the media landscape is changing at a pace that is difficult to keep up with.

TransUnion is partnering with Blockgraph so that advertisers can use its identity data to target, reach and measure TV households across channels.

How This Disaster Relief Nonprofit Tapped First-Party Data To Reach Donors Year-Round

Staying top of mind for potential donors is an ongoing challenge for Direct Relief. Nexxen’s audience curation helped it spread and sustain awareness.

Why Major UK Publishers Are Finally Joining Forces To Curate Ad Inventory

Atria’s collective approach is a response to growing monetization challenges and the need to protect the value of human journalism in the AI era.

Privacy! Commerce! Connected TV! Read all about it. Subscribe to AdExchanger Newsletters
Toronto Canada pride parade includes a crowd waving pride flags

Ad Performance And Politics Steered Brand Dollars Away From LGBTQ+ Communities – But The Pendulum Will Swing Back

The current administration has discouraged many marketers and organizations from showing support for the LGBTQ+ community, including during Pride month.

How AI Can Enhance Content Without Generating It

As much as consumers complain about AI-generated content, advertising experts say AI still has an important place in video creation and production, including for ads. But using AI in content without turning off consumers is a tricky dance.

How Tovala Banks On Subscriptions And Incrementality – But Not Ads – To Profit From Its Oven

Smart TVs, refrigerators and other home appliances may pester you with marketing, but at least the hardware is cheap. Another startup taking a different approach to the same theory is Tovala, which was founded in 2015 and combines a standalone countertop oven with a weekly meal kit subscription.