“Data-Driven Thinking” is written by members of the media community and contains fresh ideas on the digital revolution in media.
Today’s column is written by Elise Stieferman, director of marketing & business strategy at Coegi.
A marketing campaign is nothing without a strong measurement strategy. Each channel and tactic you are investing in needs to be held accountable to business results. Confirmation bias creeps in when you consider a KPI that is easily manipulated but isn’t a true reflection of business results.
Vanity metrics like CTR for search, engagement rate for social or completion rate for video are convenient substitutes for more legitimate metrics, so it’s important to look at a broader set of data to accurately assess if your efforts are moving the needle. And marketers who fear transparency in reporting do so because they can’t spin the story.
Here are three ways confirmation bias may be hurting your campaigns:
Your insights are based on irrelevant metrics
Beware of building or receiving marketing reports that say everything is working perfectly. While that is what we all want, it isn’t realistic. The telltale signs are when media metrics are thrown in that are irrelevant to the desired business outcome. If your goal is driving sales, but your analysis is focused on click-through rates rather than conversion rates, you can safely assume you’re not meeting your conversion benchmarks.
In this instance, look at period-over-period sales data relative to marketing mix and spend. It’s better to acknowledge where shortcomings are occurring and quickly pivot. In some cases, teams fear repercussions for negative results, worrying that budgets will get cut or trust will be lost. But the best marketing teams have proper leeway to fail forward, learn from the wrong assumptions and make quick adjustments. Don’t let confirmation bias allow issues to bubble underneath your campaign’s surface.
Failure to incorporate third-party metrics
Rarely do media metrics tell the full story of marketing impact. Data outside of your platforms provides unbiased insights into changes in consumer behavior that are either directly tied to – or correlated with – marketing initiatives. Control vs. exposed studies break down marketing impact on full-funnel results by audience, channel, message and more. When fused with media data, this provides the equivalent of a 3D analysis. Media metrics alone are 2D and often lack the dimension needed to inform business decisions.
When studies are not feasible or do not answer your key questions, turn to other tools such as Google trends or social listening technology. These solutions will help you to understand if shifts are occurring as a result of changes in your marketing campaigns.
Reluctance to break the mold
This is the biggest red flag of all. An unwillingness to explore new channels or tactics, vet new partners or adjust an audience strategy are signs of complacency. These marketers are relying on historical confirmation bias and aren’t looking beyond their silos.
Inevitably, these brands will be surpassed by competitors who shift with consumer demands, allowing data and research to inform action rather than instinct alone.
While it’s important to follow your intuition, it does create an environment where bias is more likely to infiltrate. Put checks and balances in place to welcome diversity of thought, but conduct thorough analysis to allow for the greatest possible success.
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