I agree with your observation that the Top 20 pubs still account for the lion's share of revenue, data, and impressions. You could well be right that the age of shimmery objects and middlemen with reverse-double-twist business models is coming to an end. I agree, it's hard to see how all the players in Terence's slide, especially the guys in the middle, carry on.

The specific worry I have -- and the reason why things might not be as shiny for the Top 20 as you suggest -- is that so many of the players in Terence's slide are focused on strip-mining the Top 20 of valuable audience data. By unbundling the publisher's value proposition – audience data + content + environment – and leaving the publisher with just content + environment, those middlemen erode net price for the publisher's media and reduce his ability to generate content that attracts valuable audiences in the first place.

Too many publishers could be feeding the cow and turning the other way while strangers come in and milk her for free. If that continues, we'll have to redo the count and start referring to the Top 200 instead of the Top 20.

I was not referring to the pricing component of Search but the fact that targeting/delivery of relevance that's accomplished in that channel -- a channel devoid of cookie based rules/matching and with a common interface and creative component for everyone using the channel -- produces the highest degrees of non PII relevance and matching this medium has to offer.

Search prices are rising and are becoming more and more competitive and as you dig into media plans you realize that you wish you could track to the impression level and the more competition increases in search the more the need develops to target effectively in search.

It's becoming easier and easier to over-spend in search and harder and harder to separate the wheat from the chaff. So I think using search as a pillar of reason to support your valid comment is a progressively slippery slope.

It seems all the excitement about the exchange/RTB/DSP/data/network space is really about splitting hairs. I think that is why everyone was so alarmed by Terence kawaja's now famous Savvian slide. This industry tends to be excited by shiny objects and forgets that the tier-1 publishers still control most of the pie.

Not to mention, the entire data landscape is predicated on cookies. Not only do they get deleted 30-40% of the time, but the government is starting to take a keen interest and will likely protect consumers in some way (TBD). BT still only accounts for less than 3% of overall spend online, yet it seems that we spend 99% of our time focused on it. BT data is great for advertisers that rely on intent (travel, auto, etc.) but the "behavioral ceiling" doesn't help P&G sell toothpaste or Unilever double their online spend to promote Lipton Ice Tea.

Once this industry has the ability to accurately and effectively deliver demographics (not inferred based on BT data) and geo-location (not based on an IP address) the tides will turn. Overall I think the tier-1 publishers are in a great position to weather this storm and regain control of the marketplace.

In my view, the challenge for publishers is that they dont see the entire spectrum of user interest/activity on the web; and therefore cant target very effectively.

Dont get me wrong: Publishers have a very valuable nugget of insight about the user; i.e. the user interest demonstrated by his/her interaction on their properties.

Publishers could look at Data Aggregators as a resource. Source audience intelligence to understand a particular user on your site when they arrive, and share (or sink) data back when you have a meaningful insight that is not proprietary.

As a contributor of insights, Publishers could assert stringent controls and requirements for how that data is shared with others, and look to Data Aggregators as a revenue source.

In the offline world, companies like Acxiom and Experian pay large sums to gain access to information from retailers. The power balance in the online world is lopsided at the moment.

In the broader context, Publishers need all the audience intelligence they can get - from the data aggregators, their own site analytics, and other sources that have foundation data about geo, demo, social, etc.

the next 12 months will be very exciting in this space

A phenomenal post that captures the state of the state around the data ecosystem and the importance for publishers to have a proactive strategy that covers off on "data leakeage, governance, valuation and control" as you say.

The challenge remains that even with a well thought out strategy there are so few independent entities in the marketplace that publishers can turn to solving for the needs detailed in your data platform must list.

In any case, it is great to see an increasing level of focus and conversation on the sell side and I am hopeful that this will result in additional capabilities and technology solutions for publishers enabling us to have a more active role as both inventory AND data management players within the ecosystem driving incremental revenue opportunities for the sell side.

To extend your comment(s) a bit:

1) If you can't measure it you can't manage it
2) If you can't manage it you can't monetize it
3) Those that can manage it (Networks, Exchanges, DSPs, Etc.) will monetize it for and around you leaving you behind

Thanks again for a great post Tom.

Jason